The heat is in the street as presidential hopeful Manuel Rosales discovered today (September 7th) in the popular Brisas de Catia in Boquerón, in the west of Caracas. After news stories of doubtful veracity were run in opposition newspapers in the last two days giving Rosales a vote intention of 72% nationwide, and Chavez 17%, Rosales’ real popularity outside of the mendacious opposition press was confirmed in a hail of bottles and stones showering down on his intended walkabout in Catia.

The opposition daily, El Universal, ran a story on September 6th written by one, Nelson Bocaranda, a well known antichavista journalist, claiming that he had had access to a “secret” poll carried out by Chavez’ Comando Miranda in seven regions of the country showing that Chavez had 17% vote intention, and his main contender for the presidency, Manuel Rosales, 72%. This is exactly how Venezuelan political competitions are run, and as we observed in our last article, objective observers would think that the wide divergence in the polls would mean that they were taken in two unrelated, far distant countries.

No serious political observer is taking Bocranda’s (or “Bocagrande” as he is called, “Bog Gob” in popular English) revelations as nothing more than cheap, propaganda, as these tactics had already been used against Chavez is the 1998 and 2000 presidential campaigns.

Rosales has now played his main card, or should one say “debit card” by offering an electronic card to the poor and middle classes called “Mi Negra” (“My Black Dear”, which is a term of endearment in Venezuelan Spanish), to around 5 million people to receive around 600,000 bolivares – about US$290, to “spread” 20% of the oil wealth and make people’s lives easier. This is an incredible ploy, since the opposition has run a campaign against government grants for various social programs for three years – learning to read and write, passing primary school level, back to work programs etc. – as throwing good money after bad. Now Rosales and his advisers, who were all in the failed Democratic Coordinator, come up with this brilliant idea, which is no more than a vote buying program.

Presuming that Rosales does reach Miraflores, it is worth asking the question what plans he has to combat the endemic inflation which has plagued the Venezuelan economy since 1983? The Mi Negra program will literally pump millions of petrodollars, representing trillions of bolivares, into the economy to fuel a consumer spending binge. This could not be more irresponsible and is a critical error which will be capitalized upon by Chavez’ campaign team, when the time is right.

It was not made clear if this “debit card” would be used monthly or yearly, and the numbers indicate that the government would not be able to service it’s external debt, internal debt, pay public employers, the armed forces, never mind invest in the Missions and keep them going if it were a monthly payment. Can you imagine the fortune the private banks would make just in charges if this demented economic plan were ever to get off the ground? In addition, this brilliant “idea” is based on oil at least at US$60/barrel, whereas the current government budget is based on oil at a conservative US$27/barrel.

The glossy “sales pamphlets” printed up to present the Mi Negra debit card looks very much like the application form for a credit card from a private bank. It is even more ironic that Rosales presented this “coup of an idea” in the luxurious Hotel Eurobuilding (now the Radisson) in the swanky east of Caracas. In his fifteen minute speech Rosales could have been a salesman presenting a new banking product to enthusiastic, middle class consumers. The opposition just cannot get away from the “good life” image - the swish venue and glossy sales pamphlets sums it all up, and this is a million miles away from the average Venezuelan voter.

Rosales was comfortable with his drooling acolytes in the Radisson Eurobuilding, but was jolted back to reality today in the popular areas where the great majorities live, and which are literally, chavista strongholds.

Accompanied by the yuppy First Justice Party ex-deputies, Liliana Hernandez and Gerardo Blyde – the latter named in 2002 as Carmona’s Attorney General during the brief de facto government, Rosales was taken aback as the people came out on to the street and protested about the bus loads of supporters he had brought with him to create a “crowd” for the ever present private media to film. (this is a virtual, TV campaign in many ways.)

Then the booing and barracking started. Pushing and shoving ensued and then one of Rosales bodyguards showed a weapon, something you do not do in a city with a high crime rate. The response was a hail of stones and bottles to force Rosales out of the vicinity. He retired to his vehicle protected by his minders and then went on to one of the main public hospitals in the west of the city, Los Magallanes de Catia, to make some declarations. Unfortunately, upon his arrival medical staff, nurses and doctors came out on to the street and the booing and barracking started all over again.

Having had time to think about the reception he had received, he simply said that it was an “ambush” organized by Chavez and his “violent platoons” and it would be Chavez’ fault if he were assassinated while campaigning. Rosales could have a rough ride in the next few days if he maintains his plans of trying to harvest votes in chavista strongholds, especially when it becomes widely known that he is receiving funding from the US to run his campaign, as admitted by one of his managers, a Señor Sánchez last week.

This brief report will give readers a flavor of what the campaign trail is all about in Venezuela. With just under three months to go until election day don’t be surprised by more surprises, lies, manipulations and misrepresentations as the dirt rises to the surface as the opposition desperation becomes more apparent.

Andy Goodall
VSC Coordinator